The Most Important Technical Indicators For Binary Options

Binary Options Trading, Signals, and Indicators

Discussion of Binary Options, Signals, and Indicators. Also discuss technical analysis and fundamental analysis in options markets.
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Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis Of Binary Options.

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Binary options trading: technical analysis on EUR/USD,GBP/USD,USD/JPY

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Technical Analysis and Signals to Trade Binary Options

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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • NOTABLE TICKERS REMOVED DUE TO STOCKS AUTO MOD
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
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The Next Processor Change is Within ARMs Reach

As you may have seen, I sent the following Tweet: “The Apple ARM MacBook future is coming, maybe sooner than people expect” https://twitter.com/choco_bit/status/1266200305009676289?s=20
Today, I would like to further elaborate on that.
tl;dr Apple will be moving to Arm based macs in what I believe are 4 stages, starting around 2015 and ending around 2023-2025: Release of T1 chip Macbooks, release of T2 chip Macbooks, Release of at least one lower end model Arm Macbook, and transitioning full lineup to Arm. Reasons for each are below.
Apple is very likely going to switch to switch their CPU platform to their in-house silicon designs with an ARM architecture. This understanding is a fairly common amongst various Apple insiders. Here is my personal take on how this switch will happen and be presented to the consumer.
The first question would likely be “Why would Apple do this again?”. Throughout their history, Apple has already made two other storied CPU architecture switches - first from the Motorola 68k to PowerPC in the early 90s, then from PowerPC to Intel in the mid 2000s. Why make yet another? Here are the leading reasons:
A common refrain heard on the Internet is the suggestion that Apple should switch to using CPUs made by AMD, and while this has been considered internally, it will most likely not be chosen as the path forward, even for their megalithic giants like the Mac Pro. Even though AMD would mitigate Intel’s current set of problems, it does nothing to help the issue of the x86_64 architecture’s problems and inefficiencies, on top of jumping to a platform that doesn’t have a decade of proven support behind it. Why spend a lot of effort re-designing and re- optimizing for AMD’s platform when you can just put that effort into your own, and continue the vertical integration Apple is well-known for?
I believe that the internal development for the ARM transition started around 2015/2016 and is considered to be happening in 4 distinct stages. These are not all information from Apple insiders; some of these these are my own interpretation based off of information gathered from supply-chain sources, examination of MacBook schematics, and other indicators from Apple.

Stage1 (from 2014/2015 to 2017):

The rollout of computers with Apple’s T1 chip as a coprocessor. This chip is very similar to Apple’s T8002 chip design, which was used for the Apple Watch Series 1 and Series 2. The T1 is primarily present on the first TouchID enabled Macs, 2016 and 2017 model year MacBook Pros.
Considering the amount of time required to design and validate a processor, this stage most likely started around 2014 or 2015, with early experimentation to see whether an entirely new chip design would be required, or if would be sufficient to repurpose something in the existing lineup. As we can see, the general purpose ARM processors aren’t a one- trick pony.
To get a sense of the decision making at the time, let’s look back a bit. The year is 2016, and we're witnessing the beginning of stagnation of Intel processor lineup. There is not a lot to look forward to other than another “+” being added to the 14nm fabrication process. The MacBook Pro has used the same design for many years now, and its age is starting to show. Moving to AMD is still very questionable, as they’ve historically not been able to match Intel’s performance or functionality, especially at the high end, and since the “Ryzen” lineup is still unreleased, there is absolutely no benchmarks or other data to show they are worth consideration, and AMD’s most recent line of “Bulldozer” processors were very poorly received. Now is probably as good a time as any to begin experimenting with the in-house ARM designs, but it’s not time to dive into the deep end yet, our chips are not nearly mature enough to compete, and it’s not yet certain how long Intel will be stuck in the mud. As well, it is widely understood that Apple and Intel have an exclusivity contract in exchange for advantageous pricing. Any transition would take considerable time and effort, and since there are no current viable alternative to Intel, the in-house chips will need to advance further, and breaching a contract with Intel is too great a risk. So it makes sense to start with small deployments, to extend the timeline, stretch out to the end of the contract, and eventually release a real banger of a Mac.
Thus, the 2016 Touch Bar MacBooks were born, alongside the T1 chip mentioned earlier. There are good reasons for abandoning the piece of hardware previously used for a similar purpose, the SMC or System Management Controller. I suspect that the biggest reason was to allow early analysis of the challenges that would be faced migrating Mac built- in peripherals and IO to an ARM-based controller, as well as exploring the manufacturing, power, and performance results of using the chips across a broad deployment, and analyzing any early failure data, then using this to patch any issues, enhance processes, and inform future designs looking towards the 2nd stage.
The former SMC duties now moved to T1 includes things like
The T1 chip also communicates with a number of other controllers to manage a MacBook’s behavior. Even though it’s not a very powerful CPU by modern standards, it’s already responsible for a large chunk of the machine’s operation. Moving control of these peripherals to the T1 chip also brought about the creation of the fabled BridgeOS software, a shrunken-down watchOS-based system that operates fully independently of macOS and the primary Intel processor.
BridgeOS is the first step for Apple’s engineering teams to begin migrating underlying systems and services to integrate with the ARM processor via BridgeOS, and it allowed internal teams to more easily and safely develop and issue firmware updates. Since BridgeOS is based on a standard and now well-known system, it means that they can leverage existing engineering expertise to flesh out the T1’s development, rather than relying on the more arcane and specialized SMC system, which operates completely differently and requires highly specific knowledge to work with. It also allows reuse of the same fabrication pipeline used for Apple Watch processors, and eliminated the need to have yet another IC design for the SMC, coming from a separate source, to save a bit on cost.
Also during this time, on the software side, “Project Marzipan”, today Catalyst, came into existence. We'll get to this shortly.
For the most part, this Stage 1 went without any major issues. There were a few firmware problems at first during the product launch, but they were quickly solved with software updates. Now that engineering teams have had experience building for, manufacturing, and shipping the T1 systems, Stage 2 would begin.

Stage2 (2018-Present):

Stage 2 encompasses the rollout of Macs with the T2 coprocessor, replacing the T1. This includes a much wider lineup, including MacBook Pro with Touch Bar, starting with 2018 models, MacBook Air starting with 2018 models, the iMac Pro, the 2019 Mac Pro, as well as Mac Mini starting in 2018.
With this iteration, the more powerful T8012 processor design was used, which is a further revision of the T8010 design that powers the A10 series processors used in the iPhone 7. This change provided a significant increase in computational ability and brought about the integration of even more devices into T2. In addition to the T1’s existing responsibilities, T2 now controls:
Those last 2 points are crucial for Stage 2. Under this new paradigm, the vast majority of the Mac is now under the control of an in-house ARM processor. Stage 2 also brings iPhone-grade hardware security to the Mac. These T2 models also incorporated a supported DFU (Device Firmware Update, more commonly “recovery mode”), which acts similarly to the iPhone DFU mode and allows restoration of the BridgeOS firmware in the event of corruption (most commonly due to user-triggered power interruption during flashing).
Putting more responsibility onto the T2 again allows for Apple’s engineering teams to do more early failure analysis on hardware and software, monitor stability of these machines, experiment further with large-scale production and deployment of this ARM platform, as well as continue to enhance the silicon for Stage 3.
A few new user-visible features were added as well in this stage, such as support for the passive “Hey Siri” trigger, and offloading image and video transcoding to the T2 chip, which frees up the main Intel processor for other applications. BridgeOS was bumped to 2.0 to support all of these changes and the new chip.
On the macOS software side, what was internally known as Project Marzipan was first demonstrated to the public. Though it was originally discovered around 2017, and most likely began development and testing within later parts of Stage 1, its effects could be seen in 2018 with the release of iPhone apps, now running on the Mac using the iOS SDKs: Voice Recorder, Apple News, Home, Stocks, and more, with an official announcement and public release at WWDC in 2019. Catalyst would come to be the name of Marzipan used publicly. This SDK release allows app developers to easily port iOS apps to run on macOS, with minimal or no code changes, and without needing to develop separate versions for each. The end goal is to allow developers to submit a single version of an app, and allow it to work seamlessly on all Apple platforms, from Watch to Mac. At present, iOS and iPadOS apps are compiled for the full gamut of ARM instruction sets used on those devices, while macOS apps are compiled for x86_64. The logical next step is to cross this bridge, and unify the instruction sets.
With this T2 release, the new products using it have not been quite as well received as with the T1. Many users have noticed how this change contributes further towards machines with limited to no repair options outside of Apple’s repair organization, as well as some general issues with bugs in the T2.
Products with the T2 also no longer have the “Lifeboat” connector, which was previously present on 2016 and 2017 model Touch Bar MacBook Pro. This connector allowed a certified technician to plug in a device called a CDM Tool (Customer Data Migration Tool) to recover data off of a machine that was not functional. The removal of this connector limits the options for data recovery in the event of a problem, and Apple has never offered any data recovery service, meaning that a irreparable failure of the T2 chip or the primary board would result in complete data loss, in part due to the strong encryption provided by the T2 chip (even if the data got off, the encryption keys were lost with the T2 chip). The T2 also brought about the linkage of component serial numbers of certain internal components, such as the solid state storage, display, and trackpad, among other components. In fact, many other controllers on the logic board are now also paired to the T2, such as the WiFi and Bluetooth controller, the PMIC (Power Management Controller), and several other components. This is the exact same system used on newer iPhone models and is quite familiar to technicians who repair iPhone logic boards. While these changes are fantastic for device security and corporate and enterprise users, allowing for a very high degree of assurance that devices will refuse to boot if tampered with in any way - even from storied supply chain attacks, or other malfeasance that can be done with physical access to a machine - it has created difficulty with consumers who more often lack the expertise or awareness to keep critical data backed up, as well as the funds to perform the necessary repairs from authorized repair providers. Other issues reported that are suspected to be related to T2 are audio “cracking” or distortion on the internal speakers, and the BridgeOS becoming corrupt following a firmware update resulting in a machine that can’t boot.
I believe these hiccups will be properly addressed once macOS is fully integrated with the ARM platform. This stage of the Mac is more like a chimera of an iPhone and an Intel based computer. Technically, it does have all of the parts of an iPhone present within it, cellular radio aside, and I suspect this fusion is why these issues exist.
Recently, security researchers discovered an underlying security problem present within the Boot ROM code of the T1 and T2 chip. Due to being the same fundamental platform as earlier Apple Watch and iPhone processors, they are vulnerable to the “checkm8” exploit (CVE-2019-8900). Because of how these chips operate in a Mac, firmware modifications caused by use of the exploit will persist through OS reinstallation and machine restarts. Both the T1 and T2 chips are always on and running, though potentially in a heavily reduced power usage state, meaning the only way to clean an exploited machine is to reflash the chip, triggering a restart, or to fully exhaust or physically disconnect the battery to flush its memory. Fortunately, this exploit cannot be done remotely and requires physical access to the Mac for an extended duration, as well as a second Mac to perform the change, so the majority of users are relatively safe. As well, with a very limited execution environment and access to the primary system only through a “mailbox” protocol, the utility of exploiting these chips is extremely limited. At present, there is no known malware that has used this exploit. The proper fix will come with the next hardware revision, and is considered a low priority due to the lack of practical usage of running malicious code on the coprocessor.
At the time of writing, all current Apple computers have a T2 chip present, with the exception of the 2019 iMac lineup. This will change very soon with the expected release of the 2020 iMac lineup at WWDC, which will incorporate a T2 coprocessor as well.
Note: from here on, this turns entirely into speculation based on info gathered from a variety of disparate sources.
Right now, we are in the final steps of Stage 2. There are strong signs that an a MacBook (12”) with an ARM main processor will be announced this year at WWDC (“One more thing...”), at a Fall 2020 event, Q1 2021 event, or WWDC 2021. Based on the lack of a more concrete answer, WWDC2020 will likely not see it, but I am open to being wrong here.

Stage3 (Present/2021 - 2022/2023):

Stage 3 involves the first version of at least one fully ARM-powered Mac into Apple’s computer lineup.
I expect this will come in the form of the previously-retired 12” MacBook. There are rumors that Apple is still working internally to perfect the infamous Butterfly keyboard, and there are also signs that Apple is developing an A14x based processors with 8-12 cores designed specifically for use as the primary processor in a Mac. It makes sense that this model could see the return of the Butterfly keyboard, considering how thin and light it is intended to be, and using an A14x processor would make it will be a very capable, very portable machine, and should give customers a good taste of what is to come.
Personally, I am excited to test the new 12" “ARMbook”. I do miss my own original 12", even with all the CPU failure issues those older models had. It was a lovely form factor for me.
It's still not entirely known whether the physical design of these will change from the retired version, exactly how many cores it will have, the port configuration, etc. I have also heard rumors about the 12” model possibly supporting 5G cellular connectivity natively thanks to the A14 series processor. All of this will most likely be confirmed soon enough.
This 12” model will be the perfect stepping stone for stage 3, since Apple’s ARM processors are not yet a full-on replacement for Intel’s full processor lineup, especially at the high end, in products such as the upcoming 2020 iMac, iMac Pro, 16” MacBook Pro, and the 2019 Mac Pro.
Performance of Apple’s ARM platform compared to Intel has been a big point of contention over the last couple years, primarily due to the lack of data representative of real-world desktop usage scenarios. The iPad Pro and other models with Apple’s highest-end silicon still lack the ability to execute a lot of high end professional applications, so data about anything more than video editing and photo editing tasks benchmarks quickly becomes meaningless. While there are completely synthetic benchmarks like Geekbench, Antutu, and others, to try and bridge the gap, they are very far from being accurate or representative of the real real world performance in many instances. Even though the Apple ARM processors are incredibly powerful, and I do give constant praise to their silicon design teams, there still just isn’t enough data to show how they will perform for real-world desktop usage scenarios, and synthetic benchmarks are like standardized testing: they only show how good a platform is at running the synthetic benchmark. This type of benchmark stresses only very specific parts of each chip at a time, rather than how well it does a general task, and then boil down the complexity and nuances of each chip into a single numeric score, which is not a remotely accurate way of representing processors with vastly different capabilities and designs. It would be like gauging how well a person performs a manual labor task based on averaging only the speed of every individual muscle in the body, regardless of if, or how much, each is used. A specific group of muscles being stronger or weaker than others could wildly skew the final result, and grossly misrepresent performance of the person as a whole. Real world program performance will be the key in determining the success and future of this transition, and it will have to be great on this 12" model, but not just in a limited set of tasks, it will have to be great at *everything*. It is intended to be the first Horseman of the Apocalypse for the Intel Mac, and it better behave like one. Consumers have been expecting this, especially after 15 years of Intel processors, the continued advancement of Apple’s processors, and the decline of Intel’s market lead.
The point of this “demonstration” model is to ease both users and developers into the desktop ARM ecosystem slowly. Much like how the iPhone X paved the way for FaceID-enabled iPhones, this 12" model will pave the way towards ARM Mac systems. Some power-user type consumers may complain at first, depending on the software compatibility story, then realize it works just fine since the majority of the computer users today do not do many tasks that can’t be accomplished on an iPad or lower end computer. Apple needs to gain the public’s trust for basic tasks first, before they will be able to break into the market of users performing more hardcore or “Pro” tasks. This early model will probably not be targeted at these high-end professionals, which will allow Apple to begin to gather early information about the stability and performance of this model, day to day usability, developmental issues that need to be addressed, hardware failure analysis, etc. All of this information is crucial to Stage 4, or possibly later parts of Stage 3.
The 2 biggest concerns most people have with the architecture change is app support and Bootcamp.
Any apps released through the Mac App Store will not be a problem. Because App Store apps are submitted as LLVM IR (“Bitcode”), the system can automatically download versions compiled and optimized for ARM platforms, similar to how App Thinning on iOS works. For apps distributed outside the App Store, thing might be more tricky. There are a few ways this could go:
As for Bootcamp, while ARM-compatible versions of Windows do exist and are in development, they come with their own similar set of app support problems. Microsoft has experimented with emulating x86_64 on their ARM-based Surface products, and some other OEMs have created their own Windows-powered ARM laptops, but with very little success. Performance is a problem across the board, with other ARM silicon not being anywhere near as advanced, and with the majority of apps in the Windows ecosystem that were not developed in-house at Microsoft running terribly due to the x86_64 emulation software. If Bootcamp does come to the early ARM MacBook, it more than likely will run like very poorly for anything other than Windows UWP apps. There is a high chance it will be abandoned entirely until Windows becomes much more friendly to the architecture.
I believe this will also be a very crucial turning point for the MacBook lineup as a whole. At present, the iPad Pro paired with the Magic Keyboard is, in many ways, nearly identical to a laptop, with the biggest difference being the system software itself. While Apple executives have outright denied plans of merging the iPad and MacBook line, that could very well just be a marketing stance, shutting the down rumors in anticipation of a well-executed surprise. I think that Apple might at least re-examine the possibility of merging Macs and iPads in some capacity, but whether they proceed or not could be driven by consumer reaction to both products. Do they prefer the feel and usability of macOS on ARM, and like the separation of both products? Is there success across the industry of the ARM platform, both at the lower and higher end of the market? Do users see that iPadOS and macOS are just 2 halves of the same coin? Should there be a middle ground, and a new type of product similar to the Surface Book, but running macOS? Should Macs and iPads run a completely uniform OS? Will iPadOS ever see exposed the same sort of UNIX-based tools for IT administrators and software developers that macOS has present? These are all very real questions that will pop up in the near future.
The line between Stage 3 and Stage 4 will be blurry, and will depend on how Apple wishes to address different problems going forward, and what the reactions look like. It is very possible that only 12” will be released at first, or a handful more lower end model laptop and desktop products could be released, with high performance Macs following in Stage 4, or perhaps everything but enterprise products like Mac Pro will be switched fully. Only time will tell.

Stage 4 (the end goal):

Congratulations, you’re made it to the end of my TED talk. We are now well into the 2020s and COVID-19 Part 4 is casually catching up to the 5G = Virus crowd. All Macs have transitioned fully to ARM. iMac, MacBooks Pro and otherwise, Mac Pro, Mac Mini, everything. The future is fully Apple from top to bottom, and vertical integration leading to market dominance continues. Many other OEM have begun to follow in this path to some extent, creating more demand for a similar class of silicon from other firms.
The remainder here is pure speculation with a dash of wishful thinking. There are still a lot of things that are entirely unclear. The only concrete thing is that Stage 4 will happen when everything is running Apple’s in- house processors.
By this point, consumers will be quite familiar with the ARM Macs existing, and developers have had have enough time to transition apps fully over to the newly unified system. Any performance, battery life, or app support concerns will not be an issue at this point.
There are no more details here, it’s the end of the road, but we are left with a number of questions.
It is unclear if Apple will stick to AMD's GPUs or whether they will instead opt to use their in-house graphics solutions that have been used since the A11 series of processors.
How Thunderbolt support on these models of Mac will be achieved is unknown. While Intel has made it openly available for use, and there are plans to have USB and Thunderbolt combined in a single standard, it’s still unclear how it will play along with Apple processors. Presently, iPhones do support connecting devices via PCI Express to the processor, but it has only been used for iPhone and iPad storage. The current Apple processors simply lack the number of lanes required for even the lowest end MacBook Pro. This is an issue that would need to be addressed in order to ship a full desktop-grade platform.
There is also the question of upgradability for desktop models, and if and how there will be a replaceable, socketed version of these processors. Will standard desktop and laptop memory modules play nicely with these ARM processors? Will they drop standard memory across the board, in favor of soldered options, or continue to support user-configurable memory on some models? Will my 2023 Mac Pro play nicely with a standard PCI Express device that I buy off the shelf? Will we see a return of “Mac Edition” PCI devices?
There are still a lot of unknowns, and guessing any further in advance is too difficult. The only thing that is certain, however, is that Apple processors coming to Mac is very much within arm’s reach.
submitted by Fudge_0001 to apple [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
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Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

Rocket Reversals

Over the last few days, we've been seeing a moderate rotation in the market as red-hot growth stocks sell-off and investors shift into other areas of the market that have been lagging. To highlight this, the table below highlights 24 companies in the Russell 3,000 with market caps of more than $1 billion that traded at a 52-week high within the last month but are currently down more than 20% from that high. The vast majority of these stocks are names that investors haven't been able to get enough of in 2020 but now appear to have had their fill.
Topping the list of these reversals is Eastman Kodak (KODK). On 7/29, the stock surged to a 52-week high of $60.00 after being awarded a questionable government contract to domestically produce components for prescription drugs. With the SEC and government agency that originally awarded the contract now looking into stock option awards at the company just before it was announced, the stock has pulled back sharply and is now down over 80% from its high less than two weeks ago.
While KODK is more of a unique example, other names on the list are primarily growth or health care stocks that have benefited from the COVID outbreak. However, now that signs suggest the summer wave in the south has crested, investors appear to be taking some profits. Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) hit a high of $17.49 on July 14th but have since lost nearly half of their value and trade back in the single-digits. Additionally, Bloom Energy (BE), 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), and Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) have all lost more than a third of their value.
In terms of market cap, most of the names listed are on the small side, but Tesla (TSLA) is a notable exception as it is now just over 20% below its 52-week high on 7/13. Other relatively large companies on the list include Moderna (MRNA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Teladoc (TDOC), and Livongo (LVGO). TDOC and LVGO both hit all-time highs last week but after announcing a mostly stock merger last Wednesday, both have lost nearly a quarter of their value.
While all of the stocks listed below have seen sharp pullbacks in the last several days, a little perspective is in order. Of the 24 names listed, the average YTD change even after the declines has been a gain of 219.7% (median: +94.6%). Only two of the stocks shown (New Relic- NEWR and Sonos- SONO) are down YTD, and half of them have at least doubled and in many cases much more.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $NVDA
  • $BABA
  • $JD
  • $HD
  • $LOW
  • $TGT
  • $SE
  • $NIU
  • $BJ
  • $AAP
  • $DLPN
  • $TJX
  • $ADI
  • $DE
  • $FL
  • $KSS
  • $DQ
  • $PDD
  • $GDS
  • $ECC
  • $BEST
  • $CTK
  • $EL
  • $VIPS
  • $SNPS
  • $A
  • $ROST
  • $QIWI
  • $LB
  • $LX
  • $AMCR
  • $CMCM
  • $LZB
  • $OPRA
  • $KEYS
  • $CREE
  • $GAN
  • $BZUN
  • $JKHY
  • $FN
  • $MLCO
  • $KC
  • $FUV
  • $SQM
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
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Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

Rocket Reversals

Over the last few days, we've been seeing a moderate rotation in the market as red-hot growth stocks sell-off and investors shift into other areas of the market that have been lagging. To highlight this, the table below highlights 24 companies in the Russell 3,000 with market caps of more than $1 billion that traded at a 52-week high within the last month but are currently down more than 20% from that high. The vast majority of these stocks are names that investors haven't been able to get enough of in 2020 but now appear to have had their fill.
Topping the list of these reversals is Eastman Kodak (KODK). On 7/29, the stock surged to a 52-week high of $60.00 after being awarded a questionable government contract to domestically produce components for prescription drugs. With the SEC and government agency that originally awarded the contract now looking into stock option awards at the company just before it was announced, the stock has pulled back sharply and is now down over 80% from its high less than two weeks ago.
While KODK is more of a unique example, other names on the list are primarily growth or health care stocks that have benefited from the COVID outbreak. However, now that signs suggest the summer wave in the south has crested, investors appear to be taking some profits. Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) hit a high of $17.49 on July 14th but have since lost nearly half of their value and trade back in the single-digits. Additionally, Bloom Energy (BE), 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), and Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) have all lost more than a third of their value.
In terms of market cap, most of the names listed are on the small side, but Tesla (TSLA) is a notable exception as it is now just over 20% below its 52-week high on 7/13. Other relatively large companies on the list include Moderna (MRNA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Teladoc (TDOC), and Livongo (LVGO). TDOC and LVGO both hit all-time highs last week but after announcing a mostly stock merger last Wednesday, both have lost nearly a quarter of their value.
While all of the stocks listed below have seen sharp pullbacks in the last several days, a little perspective is in order. Of the 24 names listed, the average YTD change even after the declines has been a gain of 219.7% (median: +94.6%). Only two of the stocks shown (New Relic- NEWR and Sonos- SONO) are down YTD, and half of them have at least doubled and in many cases much more.
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $NVDA
  • $BABA
  • $JD
  • $HD
  • $LOW
  • $TGT
  • $SE
  • $NIU
  • $BJ
  • $AAP
  • $DLPN
  • $TJX
  • $ADI
  • $DE
  • $FL
  • $KSS
  • $DQ
  • $PDD
  • $GDS
  • $ECC
  • $BEST
  • $CTK
  • $EL
  • $VIPS
  • $SNPS
  • $A
  • $ROST
  • $QIWI
  • $LB
  • $LX
  • $AMCR
  • $CMCM
  • $LZB
  • $OPRA
  • $KEYS
  • $CREE
  • $GAN
  • $BZUN
  • $JKHY
  • $FN
  • $MLCO
  • $KC
  • $FUV
  • $SQM
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Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

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Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

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Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

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Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

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Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

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Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

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(NONE)

Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

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NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

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JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

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Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

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Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

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Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

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Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

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Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
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Signals for binary options | Binary Options Signals

Signals for binary options | Binary Options Signals
Adaptive - The adaptive algorithm uses statistical analysis of historical data. In contrast to the classical signals where the signal is given by certain conditions, within the adaptive algorithm were analyzed each candle in history is evaluated, this is often an equivalent if the signals got every minute or 5 minutes counting on the expiration time. Thus, the adaptive strategy shows the foremost favourable moment for entering the market.
Trending - the subsequent technical indicators are wont to generate signals
It is possible to use any conditions for the formation of signals, except for the foremost part, all of them give signals on the brink of one another . If you've got interesting suggestions on adding signal algorithms, write to [email protected]. For us, it doesn't matter how the signal is made - signal power and heatmaps are going to be calculated automatically as soon as enough statistical data is acquired (at least 2000 signals)
Account types
Free - gives you access to all or any signals and extra statistics (power&heatmaps) for two random assets.
Pro - account give subsequent additional possibilities -
Signal power for all assets
Signals for binary options, Best binary options signals, Free Binary Options Signals, Binary Options Signals, binary signals, binary options signals software
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You can add Any Broker to vfxAlert app brokers list HeatMaps - automatically statistic of profitable signals with depends on current indicator values Signals filter - comfort tool to filtered signals Signals subscriptions - you receive signals by email or SMS Extended statistics

https://preview.redd.it/cyooh3bzzvp51.png?width=785&format=png&auto=webp&s=57ac3f7dbda59828496f7bc88b9f58289005f9a5
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vfxAlert - Signals for binary options

vfxAlert - Signals for binary options
vfxAlert it's a tool for a binary options traders which they will use in their own trading strategies. Using vfxAlert assumes that the users are conversant in the essential principles of the forex market. and that they understand the principles of technical analysis and statistical methods. There are two main ways the way to use vfxAlert:
Create a trading strategy supported signals of vfxAlert. Using adaptive algorithm for confirmation signals of existing trading strategy. Especially For Beginners Most of you think that binary options it's easy, that's absolutely wrong. Please feel the difference between easy to trade and simply earn money. Binary options are easy to trade - that's true...
But successful trading requires discipline and strict compliance with the principles of the trading strategy.
It's are going to be very difficult to know what exactly vfxAlert propose and the way to use of these statistical data. Our recommendation is to use free signals within the free version and learn technical analysis and statistical principles.
Trade 2 hours per day less . Trade at an equivalent time a day . Trade long-term signals. (Min. 5 min expiration time) Learn about assets what you getting to trade. How price moves in several trading sessions. See how trend influence on signals profitable. See how heatmaps&power influence on signals profitable. Analyse your trading statistics. Trade on demo-account. After one month you'll feel the market and possible you'll be ready to create your first trading strategy.
Signals for binary options, Best binary options signals, Free Binary Options Signals, Binary Options Signals, binary signals, binary options signals software
!Important: Signals aren't a recommendation for action. Signals are the results of marketing research on a specific algorithm, a trader has got to understand how signals are formed, and what's current market tendencies to form the proper decision.

Signals for binary options
!Important: vfxAlert don't offer trading strategies. vfxAlert offer signals and real-time statistics counting on current indicators values. See below:
The trading strategy may be a system of rules, on the idea of which the trader makes his own decisions. Such a system is made only on the idea of individual trading experience, gleaned knowledge and purchased skills. The strategy allows a deep understanding of the structure of the market and therefore the mechanisms of its operation, therefore, the exchange player makes decisions supported the present situation. On the idea of a private strategy, a trader can develop several trading systems and use them counting on market conditions. The strategy always takes under consideration fundamental factors, statistical data, also because the basic postulates of risk and money management.
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VfxAlert signals and candlestick patterns

VfxAlert signals and candlestick patterns
All how to make on binary options strategies should take into account all market analysis options. You cannot make a decision on only one instrument, even if these are candlestick analysis patterns.
Let's start with trend signals, see examples of vfxAlert binary signals.
Currency pair GBP/USD and a strong signal on PUT-option signal. Let's look at the price chart - confirmation by the "Three Method" candlestick pattern and you can open an option with an expiration of 5-10 minutes.

https://preview.redd.it/gwn6hg5fs8p51.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=f67cae8d8fde0e38a27318f8eadea0e2c3cad495
The signal appeared at the intersection of the moving average ("MA" on the signal panel). Traders see this. The option opens on a reversal, but then there are also candlestick patterns, and new PUT-signals with the “MA” label open the next options with a large volume.
The next signal on the CCI indicator shows the dynamics of the current trend. Created for the stock market, where trends are long and easier to find. On Forex, volatility is higher and there may be strong corrections and pullbacks that "break" the indicator. In the figure, binary options trading signals is confirmed by a strong candle pattern – the price goes towards the gap and you can open a CALL-option.
Reversal real binary options signals vfxAlert.
More reliable than trendy ones, beginners should start with them. It is easier to see and understand: "Bulling engulfing" pattern, which means the "bulls" managed to shift the balance of power to themselves and start an uptend on EUR / GBP. The vfxAlert signal confirms this by technical analysis of the RSI indicator.

https://preview.redd.it/gpikbe6js8p51.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=8581ebe0a59f665b78891996f23d95c289972250
Doji candlestick appeared on EUUSD. In candlestick analysis, this is the strongest reversal pattern. The vfxAlert binary options signal according to Parabolic SAR trend confirms the beginning of the downtrend. After one candlestick, the trend started you can open the PUT-option.
The trader looks at «Power» value first, the market may be sideways, and candlestick patterns are false:

https://preview.redd.it/efwtnupms8p51.png?width=1100&format=png&auto=webp&s=1170e6526704d44ec1a0ee936de5797f41e61d31
We always start testing combination "vfxAlert live binary signals + candlestick patterns" on a demo account. You only receive recommendations and must make sure that they fit your strategy, trading session and trading style.
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Unkle Mike. Culling Of Invisible Objects In Quake Related Engines

Intro
Despite all these great achievements in video cards development and the sworn assurances of developers about drawing 2 to 3 million polygons on screen without a significant FPS drop, it’s not all that rosy in reality. It depends on methods of rendering, on the number of involved textures and on the complexity and number of involved shaders. So even if all this really does ultimately lead to high performance, it only happens in the demos that developers themselves kindly offer. In these demos, some "spherical dragons in vacuum" made of a good hundred thousand polygons are drawn very quickly indeed. However, the real ingame situation for some reason never looks like this funny dragon from a demo, and as a result many comrades abandon the development of their "Crysis killer" as soon as they can render a single room with a couple of light sources, because for some reason FPS in this room fluctuate around 40-60 even on their 8800GTS and upon creating second room it drops to a whopping 20. Of course with problems like this, it would be incorrect to say how things aren’t that bad and how the trouble of such developers are purely in their absence of correctly implemented culling, and how it is time for them to read this article. But for those who have already overcome “the first room syndrome" and tried to draw – inferior though, but, anyway - the world, this problem really is relevant.
However, it should be borne in mind that QUAKE, written in ancient times, was designed for levels of a “corridor" kind exclusively; therefore methods of clipping discussed in this article are not applicable to landscapes, such as ones from STALKER or Crysis, since completely different methods work there, whose analysis is beyond the scope of this article. Meanwhile we’ll talk about the classic corridor approach to mapping and the effective clipping of invisible surfaces, as well as clipping of entire objects.

The paper tree of baloon leaves

As you probably know, QUAKE uses BSP, Binary Spacing Partition tree. This is a space indexing algorithm, and BSP itself doesn’t care if the space is open or closed, it doesn’t even care if the map is sealed, it can be anything. BSP implies the division of a three-dimensional object into a certain number of secant planes called "the branches" or "the nodes" and volumetric areas or rooms called "the leaves". The names are confusing as you can see. In QUAKE / QUAKE2 the branches usually contain information about the surfaces that this branch contain, and the leaves are an empty space, not filled with nothing. Although sometimes leaves may contain water for example (in a form of a variable that indicates, specifically, that we’ve got water in this leaf). Also, the leaf contains a pointer to the data of potential visibility (Potentially Visible Set, PVS) and a list of all surfaces that are marked as being visible from this leaf. Actually the approach itself implies that we are able to draw our world however we prefer, either using leaves only or using branches only. This is especially noticeable in different versions of QUAKE: for example, in QUAKE1 in a leaf we just mark our surfaces as visible and then we also sequentially go through all the surfaces visible from a particular branch, assembling chains of surfaces to draw them later. But in QUAKE3, we can accumulate visible surfaces no sooner than we’ll get into the leaf itself.
In QUAKE and QUAKE2, all surfaces must lie on the node, which is why the BSP tree grows rather quickly, but in exchange this makes it possible to trace these surfaces by simply moving around the tree, not wasting time to check each surface separately, which affects the speed of the tracer positively. Because of this, unique surface is linked to each node (the original surface is divided into several if necessary) so in the nodes we always have what is known to be visible beforehand, and therefore we can perform a recursive search on the tree using the BBox pyramid of frustum as a direction of our movement along the BSP tree (SV_RecursiveWorldNode function).
In QUAKE3, the tree was simplified and it tries to avoid geometry cuts as much as possible (a BSP tree is not even obliged to cut geometry, such cuts are but a matter of optimality of such a tree). And surfaces in QUAKE3 do not lie on the node because patches and triangle models lie there instead. But what happens would they be put on the node nevertheless, you can see on the example of "The Edge Of Forever" map that I compiled recently for an experimental version of Xash. Turns out, in places that had a couple thousand visible nodes and leaves in the original, there are almost 170 thousand of them with a new tree. And this is the result after all the preliminary optimizations, otherwise it could have been even more, he-he. Yeah, so... For this reason, the tree in QUAKE3 does not put anything on the node and we certainly do need to get into the leaf, mark visible surfaces in it and add them to the rendering list. On the contrary, in QUAKE / QUAKE2 going deep down to the leaf itself is not necessary.
Invisible polygon cutoff (we are talking about world polys, separate game objects will be discussed a bit later) is based on two methods:
The first method is to use bit-vectors of visibility (so-called PVS - Potential Visible Set). The second method is regular frustum culling which actually got nothing to do with BSP but works just as efficiently, for a certain number of conditions of course. Bottom line: together these two methods provide almost perfect clipping of invisible polygons, drawing a very small visible piece out of the vast world. Let's take a closer look at PVS and how it works.

When FIDO users get drunk

Underlying idea of PVS is to expose the fact that one leaf is visible from another. For BSP alone it’s basically impossible because leaves from completely different branches can be visible at the same time and you will never find a way to identify the pattern for leafs from different branches seeing each other - it simply doesn’t exist. Therefore, the compiler has to puff for us, manually checking the visibility of all leaves from all leaves. Information about visibility in this case is scanty: one Boolean variable with possible values 0 and 1. 0 means that leaf is not visible and 1 means that leaf is visible. It is easy to guess that for each leaf there is a unique set of such Boolean variables the size of the total number of leaves on the map. So a set like this but for all the leaves will take an order of magnitude more space: the number of leaves multiplied by the number of leaves and multiplied by the size of our variable in which we will store information of visibility (0 \ 1).
And the number of leaves, as you can easily guess, is determined by map size map and by the compiler, which upon reaching a certain map size, cease to divide the world into leaves and treat resulting node as a leaf. Leaf size vary for different QUAKE. For example, in QUAKE1 leaves are very small. For example I can tell you that the compiler divide standard boxmap in QUAKE1 into as many as four leaves meanwhile in QUAKE3 similar boxmap takes only one leaf. But we digress.
Let's estimate the size of our future PVS file. Suppose we have an average map and it has a couple thousand leaves. Would we imagine that the information about the leaf visibility is stored in a variable of char type (1 byte) then the size of visdata for this level would be, no more no less, almost 4 megabytes. That is, much AF. Of course an average modern developer would shrug and pack the final result into zip archive but back in 1995 end users had modest machines, their memory was low and therefore visdata was packed in “more different” ways. The first step in optimizing is about storing data not in bytes, but in bits. It is easy to guess that such approach reduce final result as much as 8 times and what's typical AF – does it without any resource-intensive algorithms like Huffman trees. Although in exchange, such approach somewhat worsened code usability and readability. Why am I writing this? Due to many developers’ lack of understanding for conditions in code like this:
if ( pvs [ leafnum >> 3 ] & ( 1 << ( leafnum & 7 ) ) ) { } 
Actually, this condition implement simple, beautiful and elegant access to the desired bit in the array (as one can recall, addressing less than one byte is impossible and you can only work with them via bit operations)

Titans that keep the globe spinning

The visible part of the world is cut off in the same fashion: we find the current leaf where the player is located (in QUAKE this is implemented by the Mod_PointInLeaf function) then we get a pointer to visdata for the current leaf (for our convenience, it is linked directly to the leaf in the form of "compressed_vis" pointer) and then stupidly go through all the leaves and branches of the map and check them for being visible from our leaf (this can be seen in the R_MarkLeaves function). As long as some leaves turn out to be visible from the current leaf we assign them a unique number from "r_visframecount" sequence which increases by one every frame. Thus, we emphasize that this leaf is visible when we build the current frame. In the next frame, "r_framecount" is incremented by one and all the leaves are considered invisible again. As one can understand, this is much more convenient and much faster than revisiting all the leaves at the end of each frame and zeroing their "visible" variable. I drew attention to this feature because this mechanism also bothers some and they don’t understand how it works.
The R_RecursiveWorldNode function “walk” along leaves and branches marked this way. It cuts off obviously invisible leaves and accumulate a list of surfaces from visible ones. Of course the first check is done for the equivalence of r_visframecount and visframe for the node in question. Then the branch undergoes frustum pyramid check and if this check fails then we don’t climb further along this branch. Having stumbled upon a leaf, we mark all its surfaces visible the same way, assigning the current r_framecount value to the visframe variable (in the future this will help us to determine quickly whether a certain surface is visible in the current frame). Then, using a simple function, we determine which side we are from the plane of our branch (each branch has its own plane, literally called “plane” in the code) and, again, for now, we just take all surfaces linked to this branch and add them to the drawing chain (so-called “texturechain”), although nobody can actually stop us from drawing them immediately, right there, (in QUAKE1 source code one can see both options) having previously checked these surfaces for clipping with the frustum pyramid, or at least having made sure that the surface faces us.
In QUAKE, each surface has a special flag SURF_PLANEBACK which help us determine the orientation of the surface. But in QUAKE3 there is no such flag anymore, and clipping of invisible surfaces is not as efficient, sending twice as many surfaces for rendering. However, their total number after performing all the checks is not that great. However, whatever one may say, adding this check to Xash3D raised average FPS almost one and half times in comparison to original Half-Life. This is on the matter whether it is beneficial. But we digress.
So after chaining and drawing visible surfaces, we call R_RecursiveWorldNode again but now - for the second of two root branches of BSP tree. Just in case. Because the visible surfaces, too, may well be there. When the recursion ends, the result will either be a whole rendered world, or chains of visible surfaces at least. This is what can actually be sent for rendering with OpenGL or Direct3D, well, if we did not draw our world right in the R_RecursiveWorldNode function of course. Actually this method with minor upgrades successfully used in all three QUAKEs.

A naked man is in a wardrobe because he's waiting for a tram

One of the upgrades is utilization of the so-called areaportals. This is another optimization method coming straight out of QUAKE2. The point of using areaportals is about game logic being able to turn the visibility of an entire sectors on and off at its discretion. Technically, this is achieved as follows: the world is divided into zones similar to the usual partitioning along the BSP tree, however, there can’t be more than 256 of them (later I will explain why) and they are not connected in any way.
Regular visibility is determined just like in QUAKE; however, by installing a special “func_areaportal” entity we can force the compiler to split an area in two. This mechanism operates on approximately the same principle as the algorithm of searching for holes in the map, so you won’t deceive the compiler by putting func_areaportal in a bare field - the compiler will simply ignore it. Although if you make areaportal the size of the cross-section of this field (to the skybox in all directions) in spite of everything the zones will be divided. We can observe this technique in Half-Life 2 where an attempt to return to old places (with cheats for example) shows us disconnected areaportals and a brief transition through the void from one zone to another. Actually, this mechanism helped Half-Life 2 simulate large spaces successfully and still use BSP level structure (I have already said that BSP, its visibility check algorithm to be precise, is not very suitable for open spaces).
So installed areaportal forcibly breaks one zone into two, and the rest of the zoneization is at the discretion of the compiler, which at the same time makes sure not to exceed 256 zones limit, so their sizes can be completely different. Well, I repeat, it depends on the overall size of the map. Our areaportal is connected to some door dividing these two zones. When the door is closed - it turns areaportal off and the zones are separated from each other. Therefore, if the player is not in the cut off zone, then rendering it is not worth it. In QUAKE, we’d have to do a bunch of checks and it’s possible that we could only cut off a fraction of the number of polygons (after all, the door itself is not an obstacle for either visibility check, or even more so, nor it is for frustum). Compare to case in point: one command is issued - and the whole room is excluded from visibility. “Not bad,” you’d say, “but how would the renderer find out? After all, we performed all our operations on the server and the client does not know anything about it.” And here we go back to the question why there can’t be more than 256 zones.
The point is, information about all of zone visibility is, likewise, packaged in bit flags (like PVS) and transmitted to the client in a network message. Dividing 256 bits by 8 makes 32 bytes, which generally isn’t that much. In addition, the tail of this information can be cut off at ease if it contains zeroes only. Though the payback for such an optimization would appear as an extra byte that will have to be transmitted over the network to indicate the actual size of the message about the visibility of our zones. But, in general, this approach justified.

Light_environment traces enter from the back

Source Engine turned out to have a terrible bug which makes the whole areaportal thing nearly meaningless. Numerous problems arise because of it: water breaks down into segments that pop in, well, you should be familiar with all this by now. Areaportal cuts the geometry unpredictably, like an ordinary secant plane, but its whole point is being predictable! Whereas areaportal brushes in Source Engine have absolutely no priority in splitting the map. It should be like this: first, the tree is cut the regular way. And when no suitable planes left, the final secant plane of areaportal is used. This is the only way to cut the sectors correctly.

Modern problems

The second optimization method, as I said, is increased size of the final leaf akin to QUAKE3. It is believed that a video card would draw a certain amount of polygons much faster than the CPU would check whether they are visible. This come from the very concept of visibility check: if visibility check takes longer than direct rendering, then well, to hell with this check. The controversy of this approach is determined by a wide range of video cards present at the hands of the end users, and it is strongly determined by the surging fashion for laptops and netbooks in which a video card is a very conditional and very weak concept (don’t even consider its claimed Shader Model 3 support). Therefore, for desktop gaming machines it would be more efficient to draw more at a time, but for weak video cards of laptops traditional culling will remain more reliable. Even if it is such a simple culling as I described earlier.

Decompression sickness simulator

Although I should also mention the principles of frustum culling, perhaps they are incomprehensible to some. Cutoff by frustum pyramid is actually pure mathematics without any compiler calculations. From the current direction of the player’s gaze, a clipping pyramid is built (the tip of the pyramid – in case someone can’t understand - is oriented towards the player’s point of view and its base is oriented in the direction of player’s view). The angle between the walls of the pyramid can be sharp or blunt - as you probably guessed already, it depends on the player's FOV. In addition, the player can forcefully pull the far wall of the pyramid closer to himself (yes, this is the notorious “MaxRange” parameter in the “worldspawn” menu of the map editor). Of course, OpenGL also builds a similar pyramid for its internal needs when it takes information from the projection matrix but we’re talking local pyramid now. The finished pyramid consists of 4-6 planes (QUAKE uses only 4 planes and trusts OpenGL to independently cut far and near polygons, but if you write your own renderer and intend to support mirrors and portals you will definitely need all six planes). Well, the frustum test itself is an elementary check for a presence of AA-box (AABB, Axis Aligned Bounding Box) in the frustum pyramid. Or speaking more correctly, this is a check for their intersection. Let me remind you that each branch has its own dimensions (a fragment of secant plane bound by neighboring perpendicular secant planes) which are checked for intersection. But unfortunately the frustum test has one fundamental drawback - it cannot cut what is directly in the player’s view. We can adjust the cutoff distance, we can even make that “ear feint” like they do in QFusion where final zFar value is calculated in each frame before rendering and then taken into account in entity clipping, but after all, whatever they say, the value itself was obtained from PVS-information. Therefore, neither of two methods can replace the other but they just complement each other. This should be remembered.

I gotta lay off the pills I'm taking

It seems that we figured out the rendering of the world and now we are moving on smoothly to cutting off moving objects... which are all the visible objects in the world! Even ones that, at te first glance, stand still and aren’t planning to move anywhere. Cause the player moves! From one point he still sees a certain static object, and from another point, of course, he no longer does. This detail should also be considered.
Actually, at the beginning of this article I already spoke in detail about an algorithm of objects’ visibility check: first we find the visible leaf for the player, then we find the visible leaf for the entity and then we check by visdata whether they see each other. I, too, would like to clarify (if someone suddenly does not understand) how each moving entity is given the number of its current visible leaf, i.e. directly for entity’s its own current position, and the leaves themselves are of course static and always in the same place.

Ostrich is such an OP problem solver

So the method described above has two potential problems:
The first problem is that even if A equals B, then, oddly enough, B is far from being always equal A. In other words, entity A can see entity B, but this does not mean that entity B see entity A, and, no, it’s not about one of them “looking” away. So why is this happening? Most often for two reasons:
The first reason is that one of the entities’ ORIGIN sit tight inside the wall and the Mod_PointInLeaf function for it points to the outer “zero” leaf from which EVERYTHING is visible (haven’t any of you ever flown around the map?). Meanwhile, no leaf inside the map can see outer leaf - these two features actually explain an interesting fact of an entire world geometry becoming visible and on the contrary, all objects disappearing when you fly outside the map. In regular mode, similar problems can occur for objects attached to the wall or recessed into the wall. For example, sometimes the sounds of a pressed button or opening door disappear because its current position went beyond the world borders. This phenomenon is fought by interchanging objects A and B or by obtaining alternative points for the position of an object, but all the same, it’s all not very reliable.

But lawyer said that you don't exist

In addition, as I said, there is another problem. It come from the fact that not every entity fits a single leaf. Only the player is so small that he can always be found in one leaf only (well, in the most extreme case - in two leaves on the border of water and air. This phenomenon is fought with various hacks btw), but some giant hentacle or on the contrary, an elevator made as a door entity, can easily occupy 30-40 leaves at a time. An attempt to check one leaf (for example, one where the center of the model is) will inevitably lead to a deplorable result: as soon as the center of an object will be out of the player’s visibility range, the entire object will disappear completely. The most common case is the notorious func_door used as an elevator. There is one in QUAKE on the E1M1. Observe: it travels halfway and then its ORIGIN is outside the map and therefore it must disappear from the player’s field of view. However, it does not go anywhere, right? Let us see in greater detail how this is done.
The simplest idea that comes to one’s mind: since the object occupies several leaves, we have to save them all somewhere in the structure of an object in the code and check them one by one. If at least one of these leaves is visible, then the whole object is visible (for example, it’s very tip). This is exactly what was implemented in QUAKE: a static array for 16 leaves and a simple recursive function SV_FindTouchedLeafs that looks for all the leaves in range hardcoded in "pev->absmins" and "pev->absmax" variables (pev i.e. a Pointer to EntVars_t table). absmins and absmax are recalculated each time SV_LinkEdict (or its more specific case of UTIL_SetOrigin) is called. Hence the quite logical conclusion that a simple change of ORIGIN without recalculating its visible leaf will take the object out of visibility sooner or later even if, surprisingly enough, it’s right in front of the player and the player should technically still be able to see it. Inb4 why one have to call UTIL_SetOrigin and wouldn’t it be easier to just assign new value to the "pev->origin" vector without calling this function. It wouldn’t.
With this method we can solve both former problems perfectly: we can fight the loss of visibility if the object's ORIGIN went beyond the world borders and level the difference of visibility for A->B versus visibility for B->A.

A secret life of monster_tripmine

Actually we’ve yet to encounter another problem, but it does not occur immediately. Remember, we’ve got an array of 16 leaves. But what if it won’t be enough? Thank God there are no beams in QUAKE and no very long elevators made as func_door either. For this exact reason. Because when the array is filled to capacity, the SV_FindTouchedLeafs function just stop and we can only hope that there won’t be that many cases when an object disappear right before our eyes. But in the original QUAKE, such cases may well be. In Half-Life, the situation is even worse - as you can remember there are rays that can reach for half the map, tripmine rays for example. In this case, a situation may occur when we see just the very tip of the ray. For most of these rays, 16 leaves are clearly not enough. Valve tried to remedy the situation by increasing the array to 48 leaves. That helped. On early maps. If you remember, at the very beginning of the game when the player has already got off the trailer, he enters that epic elevator that takes him down. The elevator is made as a door entity and it occupies 48 leaves exactly. Apparently, the final expansion of the array was based after its dimensions. Then the programmers realized that this isn’t really a solution, because no matter how much one would expand the array, it can still be lacking for something. So then they screwed up an alternative method for visibility check: a head branch (headnode) check. In short, this is still the same SV_FindTouchedLeafs but now it is called directly from the place of visibility check and with a subsequent transfer of visdata in there. In general, it is not used very often because it is slower than checking pre-accumulated leaves, that is, it is intended just for such non-standard cases like this one.
Well, and since, I hope, general picture of the clipping mechanism already beginning to take shape in your mind, I will finish the article in just a few words.
On the server, all objects that have already passed the visibility check are added to the network message containing information about visible objects. Thus, on the client, the list of visible entities is already cut off by PVS and we do not have to do this again and therefore a simple frustum check is enough. You ask, "why did we have to cut off invisible objects on the server when we could do this later when we are on the client already?" I reply: yes, we could, but now the objects cut off on the server didn’t get into the network message and saved us some traffic. And since the player still does not see them, what is the point of transferring them to the client just to check them for visibility after? This is a kind of double optimizing :)
© Uncle Mike 2012
submitted by crystallize1 to HalfLife [link] [comments]

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